Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 10/29/2011

Herman Cain maintains a lead. But that lead appears to have softened slightly since last week.

Most of the Cain loss appears to be driven by a Perry bump:

 

But the "Perry bump" may just as likely be a result of negative mentions as of positive mentions. Indeed, it appears to be centered around a number of Perry news items mid-week -- a fairly even split of "negative" and "positive" news, from the perspective of the GOP electorate. This is the first week that I wish I had implemented some sentiment analysis. I'd suspect that the (net) Perry mentions mid-week were an even split (or worse) between "positive" and "negative" mentions. In any event, the bump appears to have no staying power:

A closer look at the mention space shows Ron Paul still "off in his own little world" and Newt Gingrich building a base of conservative support similar to that seen with Cain before his surge. I still expect a Cain stumble will be needed for Newt to exploit this positioning.

As usual, I hope to be able to add some new features for next week's poll. I may be settled enough in my new job for that to be actually possible this week.