Twitter Tracking Poll: October 10, 2012

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Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 12/31/2011

Newt's in free fall and Ron Paul may have peaked.

Meanwhile, Santorum is in the early stages of the standard "Flavor-of-the-Month Bump"

Unlike previous surges, I don't see the baggage that sinks Santorum--at least in the GOP primaries. So this one could have staying power. But average mention share over the week shows just how recent and tentative the Santorum surge really is:

That said, a strong showing in Iowa could push his numbers over the top. Indeed, Santorum does seem to be emerging unambiguously as "The Conservative Choice"

If the Santorum bump can hold through South Carolina, then the only remaining variable is Huntsman -- and time is running out for him to catch on in New Hampshire. Most likely it's Paul/Romney/Santorum through at least Super Tuesday. As a three-way fight for ideological control of the GOP, this should surprise no one.

Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 12/18/2011

The standings look pretty much like you think they do:

Gingrich, Paul and Romney remain the front runners:

 But Perry, Bachmann and even Huntsman have been flirting with a new surge:

And, while Ron Paul is still off in his own little world, the population of that world is starting to look competitive.

Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 12/3/2011

Newt Gingrich has a solid lead:

While Cain appears strong in the snapshot above, his high numbers this week are a mirage brought about by affair accusations and speculation about his Saturday announcement. The timing of his bumps this week supports this analysis:

The actual Cain numbers probably approximate the trough in the 7-day rolling trend -- and no doubt continue to fall:

The mention space has become more muddled, not less. It appears that much of the GOP base are still talking about multiple candidates; and a surprising number of politically engaged GOP tweeps are not talking about any of the candidates.

In the subtext: Watch Rick Santorum in Iowa and Ron Paul in New Hampshire.

Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 11/19/2011

Newt's ascension is complete:

But there is no clear front runner:

Newt and Cain have been trading the lead all week:

Which has been no help to Romney. If any thing, the rise of Newt and fall of Cain have merely reset the race to it's early -- and highly confused -- state.

One thing's clear, Ron Paul's still off in his own little world -- and a surprising number of conservatives aren't talking about any of the candidates.

Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 11/12/2011

The "bubble" generated by the Cain scandal seems to have burst.

But his losses may be only "negative mentions" so we'll have to wait and see whether he suffers a net loss of support since the beginning of the allegations. He seems to have gained ground over the course of the last two days.

Meanwhile, Gingrich has continued his rise into the leaders' pack:

The shape of the mention space has changed significantly. I have to admit that it may take me a few weeks to be satisfied that I know how to interpret it.

My two cents today:

1. For the first time, most political discussion centers on the GOP primary;
2. The GOP electorate is a confused, uncommitted mess;
3. Newt Gingrich is benefiting greatly from the party's confusion;
4. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are still off in their own little world;

See y'all next Sunday.

Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 11/5/2011

Everyone was talking about Cain this week:

Meanwhile, Newt continued his climb into the lead pack:

And Perry's slow decline continued all week:

The mention space is complicated by the harassment scandal dogging Cain. The scandal may prove to be a net positive in the long run (in the primaries), but I have no doubt that significant portions of Cain mentions this week were "negative" mentions. (I also suspect that negative mentions may not have been reliably distinguishable from positive mentions by off-the-shelf sentiment analysis.)

Paradoxically, the Cain story has been so dominant in the past week that the mention space visualization may tell us more about the positioning of the candidates than usual.

Rick Santorum, like Ron Paul, is isolated from mainstream networks. Newt Gingrich, on the other hand,  is well positioned to see a surge of support in the weeks or months to come. Rick Perry has faded into the background with Michele Bachmann. Romney sits behind Gingrich and Cain, steady but uninspiring.