Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 12/31/2011

Newt's in free fall and Ron Paul may have peaked.

Meanwhile, Santorum is in the early stages of the standard "Flavor-of-the-Month Bump"

Unlike previous surges, I don't see the baggage that sinks Santorum--at least in the GOP primaries. So this one could have staying power. But average mention share over the week shows just how recent and tentative the Santorum surge really is:

That said, a strong showing in Iowa could push his numbers over the top. Indeed, Santorum does seem to be emerging unambiguously as "The Conservative Choice"

If the Santorum bump can hold through South Carolina, then the only remaining variable is Huntsman -- and time is running out for him to catch on in New Hampshire. Most likely it's Paul/Romney/Santorum through at least Super Tuesday. As a three-way fight for ideological control of the GOP, this should surprise no one.