As usual, I hope to be able to add some new features for next week's poll. I may be settled enough in my new job for that to be actually possible this week.
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 10/29/2011
Herman Cain maintains a lead. But that lead appears to have softened slightly since last week.
Most of the Cain loss appears to be driven by a Perry bump:
But the "Perry bump" may just as likely be a result of negative mentions as of positive mentions. Indeed, it appears to be centered around a number of Perry news items mid-week -- a fairly even split of "negative" and "positive" news, from the perspective of the GOP electorate. This is the first week that I wish I had implemented some sentiment
analysis. I'd suspect that the (net) Perry mentions mid-week were an
even split (or worse) between "positive" and "negative" mentions. In any event, the bump appears to have no staying power:
A closer look at the mention space shows Ron Paul still "off in his own little world" and Newt Gingrich building a base of conservative support similar to that seen with Cain before his surge. I still expect a Cain stumble will be needed for Newt to exploit this positioning.
As usual, I hope to be able to add some new features for next week's poll. I may be settled enough in my new job for that to be actually possible this week.
As usual, I hope to be able to add some new features for next week's poll. I may be settled enough in my new job for that to be actually possible this week.
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 10/22/2011
Herman Cain continues his comfortable lead while Perry falls farther into the middle of the pack:
Average mention share for the week suggests a three-way race between Cain, Romney and Ron Paul:
Like Bachmann, Newt's debate performance lead to a small bump at Cain's expense, but the bump quickly faded.
Cain and Romney dominate the "mainstream" discussion. Meanwhile Ron Paul is off in his own little world -- drawing significant mention share from conservatives and "independents" but virtually none from progressives and politically-engaged centrists.
Newt has a lot of conservative mention share. I wouldn't rule out a surge, but would expect a Cain stumble first.
Like Bachmann, Newt's debate performance lead to a small bump at Cain's expense, but the bump quickly faded.
Newt has a lot of conservative mention share. I wouldn't rule out a surge, but would expect a Cain stumble first.
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 10/15/2011
Herman Cain remains the most mentioned GOP primary candidate this week.
Although Romney did see a debate bump, it faded fast. Cain was consistently most mentioned all week:
Average mention share for the week suggests that the primary is settling into a two candidate contest between Romney and Cain -- with Perry and Ron Paul both slipping into the middle pack of also-rans.
A closer look at the mention space re-enforces the sense of Cain/Perry dominance -- and confirms that both are drawing robust volumes of mentions all across the political spectrum.
As I mentioned last week, I'd like to metricize the purpleness and overlap of the candidates' mentioners. But this week was my first at a new full time role. Stay tuned ... and see y'all next week.
Although Romney did see a debate bump, it faded fast. Cain was consistently most mentioned all week:
Average mention share for the week suggests that the primary is settling into a two candidate contest between Romney and Cain -- with Perry and Ron Paul both slipping into the middle pack of also-rans.
A closer look at the mention space re-enforces the sense of Cain/Perry dominance -- and confirms that both are drawing robust volumes of mentions all across the political spectrum.
As I mentioned last week, I'd like to metricize the purpleness and overlap of the candidates' mentioners. But this week was my first at a new full time role. Stay tuned ... and see y'all next week.
Sunday, October 9, 2011
Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 10/8/2011
Herman Cain has maintained a substantial lead in Twitter mention share this week.
Cain lead comfortably all week, but discussion of Rick Perry's "camp problem" exaggerated both Perry and Cain mention share early in the week. Following the dust-up, Romney re-centered to his typical 20% share and Perry continued his steady decline into the middle of the pack.
On average, mention share analysis this week gives Cain a solid lead, followed by a 3-way race of Romney, Perry and, sometimes, Ron Paul.
Analysis of the mention space suggests that Cain's mention distribution has grown increasingly "purple" -- even showing a large number of "blue" mentions. This seems to be the norm for well-established candidates, which I would suggest Cain has now become:
In the coming weeks, I hope to be able to metricize both the "overall purpleness" of a candidate's mentions and their "supporter overlap" with other candidates. Also stay tuned this fall for a number of text-mining aggregations that have been in the works. And, of course, check back next Sunday for the latest Twitter Insta-polling from Take America Forward.
Cain lead comfortably all week, but discussion of Rick Perry's "camp problem" exaggerated both Perry and Cain mention share early in the week. Following the dust-up, Romney re-centered to his typical 20% share and Perry continued his steady decline into the middle of the pack.
On average, mention share analysis this week gives Cain a solid lead, followed by a 3-way race of Romney, Perry and, sometimes, Ron Paul.
Analysis of the mention space suggests that Cain's mention distribution has grown increasingly "purple" -- even showing a large number of "blue" mentions. This seems to be the norm for well-established candidates, which I would suggest Cain has now become:
In the coming weeks, I hope to be able to metricize both the "overall purpleness" of a candidate's mentions and their "supporter overlap" with other candidates. Also stay tuned this fall for a number of text-mining aggregations that have been in the works. And, of course, check back next Sunday for the latest Twitter Insta-polling from Take America Forward.
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Twitter GOP Primary Poll -- Week ending October 1, 2011
Since the Florida straw poll Herman Cain has seen a huge boost in Twitter Mention Polling, moving from the center of the pack to clear front-runner status:
For the week of September 26 to October 1, Cain's mention share of 30%+ eclipsed those of his closest competitors -- Willard M Romney and Rick Perry, who each command roughly 15% of this week's mentions:
A look at the daily breakdown shows an uninterrupted Cain lead for the entire week, with Romney and Perry in a back-and-forth battle for second -- occasionally joined by Ron Paul.
Closer inspection of the mention space suggests that Cain dominates the discussion among conservatives, while Romney and Perry are mentioned more broadly on the political spectrum:
Please check back at Take America Forward each Sunday for weekly updates. Also expect an expanding range of analysis and a detailed discussion of Twitter aggregation methodologies.
A look at the daily breakdown shows an uninterrupted Cain lead for the entire week, with Romney and Perry in a back-and-forth battle for second -- occasionally joined by Ron Paul.
Closer inspection of the mention space suggests that Cain dominates the discussion among conservatives, while Romney and Perry are mentioned more broadly on the political spectrum:
Please check back at Take America Forward each Sunday for weekly updates. Also expect an expanding range of analysis and a detailed discussion of Twitter aggregation methodologies.
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