Lessons from the Felt: A Week in Vegas

Every Thanksgiving, my wife and I spend about a week in Las Vegas. If you have a small family, there's no better place to eat well and to appreciate the bounties available to us as Americans. But I also get the opportunity to indulge in my favorite pastime: poker. 

Like most progressives, I'm somewhat risk averse. So I spent most of my time at the $1/$2 No-Limit Hold em table at the Bellagio:

With a minimum chip buy of $100 and a maximum of $200, these small stakes were right at the edge of my comfort zone as a hobby player. But as a poker player, I had to check my risk aversion at the cage. Once those chips were on the table I had to be willing to use them or they lost all power. That's because the biggest weapons in the poker player's arsenal are aggression and deception.

Unlike all of the other games in the casino, poker is not played against the house. On aggregate, the house will win all its other games (typically 1-2% but sometimes much more). But in poker, you have as good a chance as anyone else with a stake. At the same time, poker is a meritocracy. And the reality is that some players have a substantial edge. 

Most people believe this edge comes from a deep knowledge of statistics, but those people are wrong.  Sure, you are unlikely to be a profitable player if you are not aware of the basic statistics of the game.  But study of this aspect of the game is likely to reach diminishing returns fairly quickly.  As the old adage goes:

Poker is not a game of cards played by people. Poker is a game of people played with cards.

If you are not playing a game of opponents and situations, then you are not actually playing poker. It is surprising how many people spend countless hours at the felt without recognizing this.

Democrats would benefit from some lessons at the felted table. I'll try to start them off with a few here.

• Image is everything and is established quickly
• Strike back at an aggressor even harder ... Now!
• Beware when an aggressor stops attacking
• You can be friendly and brutalize your opponents at the same time
• If you don't choose the hands you play, your opponents will

Obama needs to get the congressional team together and talk strategy.  His bankroll is still big enough to make some adjustments. The good news is, he's played before.