Friday, February 25, 2011

Owning It: Killing the "Liberal Bias" Myth

Cenk Uygur joked on MSNBC on Thursday that history has a "liberal bias" -- amending a line made famous in Colbert's coup de grace performance at the 2006 White House Correspondents' Dinner:
Now, I know there are some polls out there saying this man has a 32 percent approval rating. But guys like us, we don't pay attention to the polls. We know that polls are just a collection of statistics that reflect what people are thinking in "reality". And reality has a well-known liberal bias ... Sir, pay no attention to the people who say the glass is half empty, because 32 percent means it's two-thirds empty. There's still some liquid in that glass, is my point. But I wouldn't drink it. The last third is usually backwash.

The hipster in me says: But Monty Python has already flung a cow, so it couldn't possibly be funny again. The political analyst in me says: Now that's how to inoculate an insidious right wing meme. Imagine a world in which the very phrase "liberal bias" has become so cliche that it is a liability.

In short: Lean into it.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Government is what we choose to do together

A shocking new survey of government aid recipients shows even these programs' participants are unaware that they have been receiving government aid.

529 or Coverdell64.3
Home mortgage interest deduction60.0
Hope or Lifetime Learning Tax Credit59.6
Student Loans53.3
Child and Dependent Tax Credit51.7
Earned income tax credit47.1
Social Security - Retirement and Survivors44.1
Pell Grants43.1
Unemployment Insurance43.0
Veterans Benefits (other than G.I. Bill)41.7
G.I. Bill40.3
Medicare39.8
Head Start37.2
Social Security Disability28.7
SSI - Supplementary Security Income28.2
Medicaid27.8
Welfare/Public Assistance27.4
Government Subsidized Housing27.4
Food Stamps25.4


This chart speaks for itself, but I'll accentuate two important points: over a quarter of even food stamp recipients are unaware that they are benefiting from a government program; over half of the benefactors of major tax and household credits are entirely unaware of their "dependence" on government aid.

Many of these programs are important to the American safety net and to middle class prosperity, but I leave line-by-line budget and efficacy analysis to those more qualified than I. My point here is rhetorical: How is it that so many Americans are entirely unaware of the important role played by government in modern economies -- even in "free market" economies such as the United States?

The standard response is to blame "the media" or conservative framing. This is as lazy as it is defeatist. The fact is that Republican claims about government are demonstrably false and ring of a deeply amoral selfishness that is at odds with the truly compassionate nature of real Americans. If Democrats are not out there every day making exactly these two points, then they have only themselves to blame when they are "outframed" by Republicans.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Twitter's Top 40 Political Influencers in January

I've been looking closely at how ideas and talking points spread on Twitter. My algorithms are all tied together with duct tape and require significant hand-holding, but some results are finally beginning to come together.

As Take America Forward readers are no doubt aware, I've been watching the hashtags #teaparty, #tcot and #p2 particularly closely. On those hashtags, an elaborate economy of tweets, retweets and mentions exposes a hierarchy of influence. Based upon some early influence metrics, the political Twittersphere would have the following "Top 40 Influencers" in January.


The algorithms currently assume tweet and mention counts are important, and also the number of unique mentioners. The actual breakdowns for these users would be:


I could use some feedback if you have any ideas about how to improve this analysis. In the meantime, enjoy this primitive network model for January (colors and sizes have equivalent meaning: greater influence).


Sunday, February 6, 2011

Message Discipline: Calling out Climate Denial with Effective Language

Last Wednesday, a Washington Post article on "the new tone" caught my attention. Discussing conservative distaste for the use of the phrase climate denier by climate change activists, Andrew Freedman lends unfortunate credibility to their demands that the expression be put off limits:
Blogs like Watts Up With That (known in climate circles as WUWT), which is run by former TV meteorologist [and climate denier] Anthony Watts, helped propel the climategate story onto front pages in late 2009 and early 2010. ...
 
"I did ask Dr. Trenberth, who is at the top of the climate food chain, to stop using a derisive term. He clearly refused. I also sent him an email offering my forum for rebuttal should he wish. No answer. This speaks poorly for his leadership, it speaks equally poorly for the rest of the climate science community that they haven't asked for him to publicly stop using a term," Watts wrote. "In the climate science debate, the scientists are the leaders, yet they have embraced this word, 'denier' with all of its holocaust connotations. Dr. Trenberth's AMS address using that word six times is the pinnacle of abuse of that word so far." [Emphasis and context added]
Nonsense. If climate deniers don't want to be called climate deniers then they should stop denying climate science. It's that simple.

But a closer reading of the story shows a troubling rhetorical asymmetry: contrarian language from the left; threats and intimidation from the right. Lawrence Livermore's Ben Santer, a lead author of the 1995 U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, notes that climate scientists "are being subject to really intolerable nonscientific interference in their work simply because of what they're doing and what they've learned." Death threats keep coming from those egged-on by the climate deniers, but the scientific community should dispense with their most descriptive language to date?

Climate deniers deserve to be intellectually marginalized. Democrats must find uncharacteristic discipline and speak of climate deniers frequently in unambiguous language. Furthermore, they should feel no ethical qualms about doing so. Time and time again, Republican success can be tied directly to the word-choice recommendations of pollster Frank Luntz. This observation is hardly new. The American left has been wringing its collective hands over Frank for nearly two decades. But rarely do you hear discussions about how to neutralize or replicate this strategy for Democrats.

Let's start with the first possibility: neutralizing the Luntz strategy. This won't work in the short term. The simple fact is that conservatives are not constrained by cries of shame originating on the left. And a focused campaign to inoculate the public against the right's messaging strategies would require extensive research and publicity -- neutralization requires much more than merely pointing out that the GOP insists on referring to the estate tax as the death tax. No matter how funny Jon Stewart's video montages of him repeatedly saying job-killing and government takeover, Boehner's still out there every day saying these things. As PR strategists say, there's no such thing as bad publicity; and the more we talk about death taxes, the more the public believes they actually exist. We would need to look more deeply and talk more openly about why these phrases are deceptive and manipulative. We can do that. But not overnight.

The second possibility -- replicating the Luntz strategy -- is much more promising. The two biggest obstacles are both psychological: Democrats lack the nerve and discipline to adopt the strategy. The former is a matter of perceived ethics; I will spend the remainder of this post addressing the ethics so as to convince others on the left to focus a little more on addressing the discipline.

Freedman argues [emphasis added]:
Simply put, the rhetoric on all sides has been out of hand for far too long, and it needs to be reined in, not only to avoid something horrific - a climate science equivalent to the Arizona shootings - but also because of the damage it's doing to the public dialogue on climate change. At the end of the day, when climate scientists are fearful of engaging with the media or the public, it's the American public that loses out on potentially critical insights into what is happening to the climate system and what would best be done about it.
Of course, this would be true if the debate were about how to ameliorate the climate crisis. It is not.

Perhaps the biggest issue facing the world today is global climate change. Although many analysts believe we may have already passed a tipping point beyond which corrective measures will have no effect, a large segment of the American right has latched onto pseudo-science and creationist-style attacks couched in the language of "skepticism." As with evolution, the alternative climate hypotheses are not taken seriously in mainstream scientific circles. Nevertheless these hypotheses are held up as evidence of contrarian viewpoints, amplifying the appearance of scientific doubt to levels unsupported by the facts.

Two rhetorical surrenders on this front would prove fatal for efforts to realistically confront climate and energy issues moving forward: we must never cease pointing to the overwhelming scientific evidence supporting a warming trend; and, perhaps just as importantly, we cannot allow Republicans to frame themselves as mere skeptics, when they are truly deniers. They are atheists not agnostics. Even the Skeptics Society accepts the premise of global climate change -- with an eye toward amelioration.

Skepticism is cute. And admirable. Denial, not so much.

But even worse, the claims of rhetorical moral equivalency are vastly overblown. Parallels with Holocaust denier are accidental and irrelevant. They do not justify the elevation of deniers to skeptics. I should be clear: climate change activists should not make overt Holocaust comparisons, but they also should not back down from their perfectly acceptable use of the term denier when they make reference to climate deniers. While Nazi references should absolutely be off limits, the expression climate denier does not make any such references.

But how does climate denier compare to Luntz-generated phrases from Republicans? Death panel, death taxjob-killing and job-crushing all activate extremely negative networks -- networks related to death and destruction. And unlike climate denier, which only activates negatively charged networks through its association with a similar (but still entirely unrelated) collocation, the GOP stock phrases activate such networks directly.

But these talking points have one additional property as well: they are all lies. There are no death panels; the estate tax impacts only a small number of people; and, as the CBO reports, the Affordable Care Act frees workers -- it does not eliminate jobs. On the other hand, climate denier is a true claim about climate deniers. To decide if climate denier is a true description, we must look more closely at the nominalized verb denier. Does deny make any claims about the truth of its complement? In other words, if a speaker A is called an X denier does it unfairly imply that A knows X is true, but is lying anyway? The short version is no. In more technical terms, deny is not a factive verb. So, even if you buy the climate deniers' premise that climate science is unsettled (which you should not), climate denier is a perfectly honest description of climate deniers.

As I've argued in the past, the only way for progressives to fight the rhetorical dominance of the right is to know exactly where the ethical line is drawn; be unafraid to walk right up to it; and be committed to calling out conservatives every time they cross it. Those who would like society to exist for future generations should use the expressions climate denier and climate denial proudly and frequently.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Two Months at Salon

Over the past two months, I've had the pleasure of an unpaid news editorial fellowship at Salon. As a result, I was given the opportunity to generate a few Salon bylines. These are the highlights.

Ohio to put prisoners down like dogs, literally
The Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction announced Tuesday that it will use pentobarbital, a common anesthetic used by ...
By Christopher R. Walker -- January 25, 2011

Democrats discuss repeal debate language
Democrats contemplate branding: "No Care" sounds way cornier than "Patients' Rights Repeal," but it's shorter
By Christopher R. Walker -- January 16, 2011

T-shirtgate: From meme to Malkin
Pundit class and grassroots alike, partisan ideologues on right find fault with Obama at Tucson memorial event
By Christopher Walker -- January 13, 2011

Study: Conservatives have larger "fear center"
University College London researchers say brains of the right-leaning have big amygdala, small anterior cingulate
By Christopher R. Walker -- December 29, 2010

Home for the holidays: Soldier reunions
Get your hankies ready: Our favorite videos of soldiers returning home to their families
By Christopher R. Walker -- December 25, 2010

Flash mobs spread holiday cheer
Twitter allows Christmas carolers to plan spontaneous performances and to surprise shoppers; or to overwhelm them
By Christopher R. Walker -- December 21, 2010

A brief history of Operation Payback
An aggressive cyber war has erupted between WikiLeaks supporters and opponents. Who's been hit so far, and how hard
By Christopher R. Walker -- December 9, 2010

Calling Captain Awesome
Unemployed Ore. cabinet maker legally changes his name and signature, with inspiration from the NBC series "Chuck"
By Christopher R. Walker -- December 8, 2010

What does NASA's new life-form discovery mean?
Scientists' announcement of a new form of microbe raises questions about extraterrestrial life. An expert explains
By Christopher R. Walker -- December 3, 2010

NASA teases world with mystery announcement
Tweeple have been speculating all day about what a panel of E.T. hunters will announce on Thursday
By Christopher R. Walker -- December 1, 2010

The biggest implication of my departure from Salon is more time to produce the long-form writing and analysis that Take America Forward was designed to deliver. It's good to be back.