Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 12/18/2011

The standings look pretty much like you think they do:

Gingrich, Paul and Romney remain the front runners:

 But Perry, Bachmann and even Huntsman have been flirting with a new surge:

And, while Ron Paul is still off in his own little world, the population of that world is starting to look competitive.

Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 12/3/2011

Newt Gingrich has a solid lead:

While Cain appears strong in the snapshot above, his high numbers this week are a mirage brought about by affair accusations and speculation about his Saturday announcement. The timing of his bumps this week supports this analysis:

The actual Cain numbers probably approximate the trough in the 7-day rolling trend -- and no doubt continue to fall:

The mention space has become more muddled, not less. It appears that much of the GOP base are still talking about multiple candidates; and a surprising number of politically engaged GOP tweeps are not talking about any of the candidates.

In the subtext: Watch Rick Santorum in Iowa and Ron Paul in New Hampshire.

Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 11/19/2011

Newt's ascension is complete:

But there is no clear front runner:

Newt and Cain have been trading the lead all week:

Which has been no help to Romney. If any thing, the rise of Newt and fall of Cain have merely reset the race to it's early -- and highly confused -- state.

One thing's clear, Ron Paul's still off in his own little world -- and a surprising number of conservatives aren't talking about any of the candidates.

Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 11/12/2011

The "bubble" generated by the Cain scandal seems to have burst.

But his losses may be only "negative mentions" so we'll have to wait and see whether he suffers a net loss of support since the beginning of the allegations. He seems to have gained ground over the course of the last two days.

Meanwhile, Gingrich has continued his rise into the leaders' pack:

The shape of the mention space has changed significantly. I have to admit that it may take me a few weeks to be satisfied that I know how to interpret it.

My two cents today:

1. For the first time, most political discussion centers on the GOP primary;
2. The GOP electorate is a confused, uncommitted mess;
3. Newt Gingrich is benefiting greatly from the party's confusion;
4. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are still off in their own little world;

See y'all next Sunday.

Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 11/5/2011

Everyone was talking about Cain this week:

Meanwhile, Newt continued his climb into the lead pack:

And Perry's slow decline continued all week:

The mention space is complicated by the harassment scandal dogging Cain. The scandal may prove to be a net positive in the long run (in the primaries), but I have no doubt that significant portions of Cain mentions this week were "negative" mentions. (I also suspect that negative mentions may not have been reliably distinguishable from positive mentions by off-the-shelf sentiment analysis.)

Paradoxically, the Cain story has been so dominant in the past week that the mention space visualization may tell us more about the positioning of the candidates than usual.

Rick Santorum, like Ron Paul, is isolated from mainstream networks. Newt Gingrich, on the other hand,  is well positioned to see a surge of support in the weeks or months to come. Rick Perry has faded into the background with Michele Bachmann. Romney sits behind Gingrich and Cain, steady but uninspiring.

Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 10/29/2011

Herman Cain maintains a lead. But that lead appears to have softened slightly since last week.

Most of the Cain loss appears to be driven by a Perry bump:

 

But the "Perry bump" may just as likely be a result of negative mentions as of positive mentions. Indeed, it appears to be centered around a number of Perry news items mid-week -- a fairly even split of "negative" and "positive" news, from the perspective of the GOP electorate. This is the first week that I wish I had implemented some sentiment analysis. I'd suspect that the (net) Perry mentions mid-week were an even split (or worse) between "positive" and "negative" mentions. In any event, the bump appears to have no staying power:

A closer look at the mention space shows Ron Paul still "off in his own little world" and Newt Gingrich building a base of conservative support similar to that seen with Cain before his surge. I still expect a Cain stumble will be needed for Newt to exploit this positioning.

As usual, I hope to be able to add some new features for next week's poll. I may be settled enough in my new job for that to be actually possible this week.

Twitter Poll: GOP Primary -- Week Ending 10/22/2011

Herman Cain continues his comfortable lead while Perry falls farther into the middle of the pack:

Average mention share for the week suggests a three-way race between Cain, Romney and Ron Paul:

Like Bachmann, Newt's debate performance lead to a small bump at Cain's expense, but the bump quickly faded.

 Cain and Romney dominate the "mainstream" discussion. Meanwhile Ron Paul is off in his own little world -- drawing significant mention share from conservatives and "independents" but virtually none from progressives and politically-engaged centrists.

Newt has a lot of conservative mention share. I wouldn't rule out a surge, but would expect a Cain stumble first.